Gallup polling from last year indicates that 27% of Americans identify as Democrats. The same percentage applies to Republicans. Meanwhile 45% identify as Independents. When Gallup party identification polling began in 1988, the shares were approximately 1/3 for each affiliation with Democrats having a slight edge. This is a massive change. What explains it? I can think of a couple things. The increasing tribalization of politics plays a part. Both Democrats and Republicans increasingly use negative campaigning to position to win as the lesser of two evils. This approach may work in solidifying the base in each party. Left wing socialists and greens on the Democratic side. And nativists and now anti-free trade elements in the Republican party. But it leaves that hefty 45% plurality offended by both sides. Most of them do settle for voting for the lesser of two evils. The approximately 1/3 each for Republicans, Democrats and Independents held pretty steady through the early 2000s. Then the housing bust happened. The Obama administration furthered the trend toward socialism with ObamaCare. Then came the first Trump administration. Trump presided over the origination of the COVID lockdowns and the reckless government overspending financed by the Fed to hide the terrible economic effects of essentially shutting down small businesses in America. Biden continued those bad policies and added backroom censorship of media and social media sites regarding the alleged dangers of COVID and to cover up Biden's probable corruption. Remember the Hunter Biden laptop? Trump II is delivering more corruption. Except that his corruption is shamelessly in our faces.

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson started the 2012 election with double digit polling only to be taken down by his confused answer to the "What about Aleppo" question. The established media used that as their excuse to essentially ignore his campaign and push it into irrelevancy. Never mind Obama's claim that he had campaigned in all 57 states which was essentially ignored by said media. I don't know what percentage of the 45% of Independents are libertarian leaning but I'd be willing to bet it's over half.

So let's talk about 2028. By that time the MAGA movement will have likely disintegrated into irrelevance due to Netanyahu talking Trump into helping with Israel's existential war with Iran. Trump is likely being engulfed by the military/industrialist and deep state swamp he promised to eliminate. The no new wars portion of the Trump coalition has largely departed. The protectionists have been demoralized by the Supreme Court rulings against tariff authority. All that remains are the know-nothing nativists. Enter Thomas Massey, Republican Congressman from Kentucky. He's one of only four Republicans calling for full release of the Epstein files and prosecution of the rich rapists linked to them. And he led the effort. He along with Senator Rand Paul and Representative House member Warren Davidson are the only Republicans calling for a war powers resolution to end the war in Iran. Meanwhile the Quinnipiac poll indicates 53% opposition to the war with 89% of Democrats and 60% of Independents opposed. Only Republicans at 85% support the war. And this poll was taken before significant American casualties, before the full increase in gas prices that will result from the closing of the Strait of Hormuz and before any possible boots hit the ground in the 17th largest nation in the world. And which, like Afghanistan, has lots of mountains for would be martyrs to hide out in.

The Republican front runner by far is J.D. Vance. Vance is a political chameleon who will have a hard time shaking off his opposition to Trump only to make a 180 degree turn to support him...and get the VP slot. On the Democratic side the front runner is Kamala Harris who has already demonstrated her capacity to lose. She is followed by Gavin Newsom who will have a hard time explaining why Californians have been fleeing the state under his governorship. Massey is getting traction on X as a potential Presidential candidate. But MAGA opposition will probably prevent that from happening on a Republican ticket. But as a Libertarian with established ballot access in pretty much every state? With good communication skills? With demonstrated ability to work with Democrats like Progressive Ro Khanna with whom he has been working on Epstein transparency? I'm guessing that with over half of the Independent vote, some non-progressive moderates in the Democratic Party and anti-Trump Republicans, he could pull it off. Hey, Javier Milei in Argentina did it with no major party backing. And he did it running as an anarcho-capitalist who communed with his dead dogs. One can only hope. That's this week's Report From the Fields. I'm Richard Fields. See you again next week.