Loading...
 

From The Fields

Geometric Growth, Arithmetic Fears: The Fallacy of Population Panic

FromTheFields Tuesday October 31, 2023


In 1798 Thomas Malthus predicted that the relative prosperity the human race was enjoying at the time would end in sorrow. He predicted that food production would increase arithmetically while the population would increase geometrically leading to shortages of food. It seems he has been wrong for 225 years now. Just in my 76 year lifetime, the yield of dryland corn has increased from about 30 bushels per acre to a nationwide average of 177 bushels per acre. 200-300 bushel yields under good growing conditions is common. So corn production has increased nearly 6-fold. Meanwhile the population is up by only about 2.5 times. Looks like Malthus got it backwards. Population has risen arithmetically while food production has increased geometrically.

Lesson learned, right. The population doomsters are laughably wrong and should be safely ignored. Except they keep popping up and spreading the same message of fear and need for massive government regulation. In 1968 Paul and Anne Erlich wrote "The Population Bomb" which said, The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate.

Well, it seems we survived the 70s. In fact in 1980 economist Julian Simon made a $10,000 bet with Erlich that 5 commodities of Erlich's choice would go down in inflation adjusted price by 1990. Erlich chose copper, tin, nickel, tungsten and chromium. He lost the bet.

When Al Gore became Vice President, he was given authority of the President's newly established President's Council on Sustainable Development. Gore's first priority was to make sure everyone in a position of authority in the Clinton Administration hewed religiously to the narrative of human caused global warming. Indeed, when the Director of Energy Research at the Department of Energy testified before Congress that the scientific data did not support the hypothesis of global warming. he was summarily fired. Administrative state bureaucrats have toed the line ever since. Gore went on to produce the movie, An Inconvenient Truth which predicted apocalyptic dying polar bears, inundated coastal cities, spreading diseases, hurricanes and tornadoes wiping out cities, and food supplies exterminated by droughts. None of these dire predictions came to pass but Al Gore's net worth increased from $2 million to $399 million.

What's the point of all these scary stories other than Halloween was just a few days ago? It's that in politics, fear sells. If a politician is telling you to be afraid of something, best to hold your wallet in a very safe place.