The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest inflation guesstimate earlier this week. The year over year number, which bears little resemblance to your grocery bill or other living expenses was 3.1%. That's lower than last month's 3.4%. So the financial markets should jump joyously, right. But, wait, the day after the announcement the stock market went down and interest rates went up. What? Isn't lower inflation supposed to be good for business. And shouldn't lower inflation mean a lower inflation premium on borrowing money? Well in today's fun house mirror financial markets, what you see is not what you get. Everything turns on expectations of where the Fed, which administers price controls on the price of money, otherwise known as interest rates, is going to ordain interest rates to be next.
Stock market investors want lower rates. That way they can borrow to buy stocks more cheaply. Businesses can borrow to finance inventories more cheaply. And so forth. But if inflation is not going to the Fed's target of 2% quickly enough, the tea leaf readers at the Fed will delay in lowering rates because higher rates mean a slower growing economy and less inflation. Are you following so far? If you don't, no worries. According to Credit Suisse the top 10% of people own 82% of all the investment wealth globally. It's a small club and we're probably not in it.
All of this begs the question of what is magical about 2% inflation. After all, it means that your money loses half its value in only 35 years. Meaning you will have about half as much money to retire on as you may have been expecting. To understand the magic, requires understanding that inflation, accurately defined, is simply the increase in the amount of money available to buy goods and services expressed as an annual percentage gain. It's an increase in money with no corresponding increase in what that money buys. More money...the same amount of stuff to buy...prices go up. Simple supply and demand. The biggest chunk of all the trillions of new money the Fed has created over the last several decades is borrowed by the Federal government to cover the difference between government spending and taxes collected. Another chunk is borrowed by businesses to fund operations and by the wealthy to speculate in the stock and bond markets. What's left is lent to consumers paying about 23% interest with little hope of ever getting out of debt.
In 2020 the Fed increased its assets, that is it created new money out of thin air, by $3.16 trillion. The Federal government borrowed even more, $4.56 trillion. It got the rest from other investors, other countries, businesses and individuals. The point is, 69% of the budget deficit in 2023 came from newly minted Fed funny money. That's what led to 9% inflation. People notice 9%. They tend not to notice 2%. That's why the Fed tries to keep inflation at 2%. It functions as a 2% sales tax without the government having to admit it.
So remember that the next time some lying politician tries to tell you inflation is caused by Kelloggs shrinking its package of corn flakes.Inflation is never ever anything other than a sneaky indirect sales tax.